Thursday, 27 December 2012

News Update - 27 Dec 2012


RESIDENTIAL MARKET


URA factors in shrinking condo unit sizes as it looks ahead

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) seems to think that the average unit size of condos will shrink in its estimates of housing supply for the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.
Based on BT's analysis of the first-half 2013 GLS programme, the average gross floor area (GFA) per home for typical private condo sites in Outside Central Region (OCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) has each been reduced by five square metres to 90 sq m and 80 sq m respectively compared with the H1 and H2 2012 slates.
For sites designated for executive condominiums (ECs), the average home size assumption has been kept the same at 100 sq m in OCR, which is where suburban mass-market homes are located.
Analysts note that the URA's move to clip its average home size assumption annually in the past few years reflects developers' strategy of minting smaller units to keep lump-sum prices affordable while jacking up per square foot prices.
BT selected sites by location and then divided each of their maximum GFA by the number of potential homes estimated by the URA to arrive at the average size assumed per home.
When contacted, the URA's spokesman said that it regularly reviews space standards - that is, average GFA per housing unit - used to estimate the number of homes that can be generated from GLS sites. It takes into account the sizes of units in housing projects (including ECs) which have obtained planning approvals in recent years.
"The most recent review, which covers residential projects in all locations, was done this year and the updated space standards were adopted for the H1 2013 GLS Programme. The space standards adopted for private residential sites in RCR and OCR in the H1 2013 GLS Programme are smaller than in the previous GLS Programmes," he added.
BT has observed that in the past few years, the URA has been updating space standards once a year, in the first-half GLS slate.
The URA highlighted that its estimates of the number of residential units for GLS sites is intended to serve as a guide only. "The actual number would depend on the decisions and development plans of the developers."
There's room for developers to squeeze in more units. Under a guideline announced in September, the maximum number of units allowed for sites Outside the Central Area is based on an average home size of 70 sq m.
Market watchers noted that for ECs, the URA has not shrunk its average unit size assumptions since H1 2011.
While the 90-sq-m and 80-sq-m average unit sizes in the latest revision for the H1 2013 list applies to typical private condo plots in OCR and RCR respectively, there are a few exceptions. "For the residential sites at Kim Tian Road, Faber Walk and Jalan Bunga Rampai, URA in consultation with Land Transport Authority will impose a more stringent space standard to ensure that the residential units from these sites do not generate excessive traffic flow that cannot be supported by the surrounding roads. This is reflected in the estimated housing units for these sites," said the URA's spokesman.
The URA has estimated that the Kim Tian plot can yield some 500 units (reflecting an average unit size of 88 sq metres). Had the typical RCR average unit size of 80 sq m been used, the estimated supply would have been more: 550 units. The more stringent space standard takes into account narrow roads in the area. It's a similar case for the Jalan Bunga Rampai plot, off Bartley Road and next to a landed housing estate with narrow roads.
Similarly, the Faber Walk site in OCR, with an estimate that reflects a larger than average home size of 100 sq m, will likely churn out fewer units as it is next to several landed housing estates which typically have small roads.
Analysts reckon the URA could end up stipulating its estimated number of units for these three sites as the maximum units, taking into account the tight road capacity in the locations.
Source: Business Times –27 December 2012
 
Analysts see sustained demand for HDB resale flats next year
Hot, robust and pulsating. Three words market watchers have used to describe the resale flat market this year, and it looks like they will be saying the same next year.
Resale prices for Housing & Development Board (HDB) homes could go up by between 3 and 8 per cent in 2013, and cash-over-valuations, or COVs, could rise 5 to 10 per cent, analysts told The Business Times.
They foresee sustained demand in the face of constrained supply and easy monetary conditions.
Prices for resale units gained 3.9 per cent in the first nine months of the year, the HDB's latest statistics showed. That is down from 10.7 per cent last year and 14.1 per cent in 2010, but prices are still at a record high.
Full-year growth could clock in at between 5 and 7 per cent, the consultants said.
Meanwhile, COVs have resumed their ascent after stabilising in the first half of the year. The median for this cash premium is now $34,000, based on the Singapore Real Estate Exchange's latest report, $2,000 shy of the record set last year.
A record number of more than 27,000 Built-to-Order (BTO) flats will be released this year, bringing the total to some 83,000 since 2009. The HDB also increased the allocation of BTO flats and executive condominiums (ECs) to second-time buyers in March.
Analysts are expecting between 22,000 and 27,000 BTO units for next year.
Sales volume for pre-owned homes fell from over 32,000 in 2010 to about 25,000 in 2011 and around 19,000 in the first nine months of 2012, he said.
"The fresh supply of resale flats is quite low," said Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Realty.
One reason is the policies introduced in 2010 that required owners of private homes to sell them off if they buy HDB units, and extended the Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) from three to five years.
This has made upgraders reluctant to sell as it meant they could not buy an HDB flat in future.
Property measures introduced this year were a mixed bag.
Restrictions on the number of shoebox units in private residential developments could chase demand back to resale flats.
Low borrowing rates this year continued to spur interest from second-time buyers and permanent residents (PRs) for whom monthly instalments can be lower than rents.
Analyst said that most of the same factors that contributed to the buzz this year will remain relevant next year.
The supply of resale flats will remain tight even as more BTO units roll out. A commitment to a new flat now means the unit is effectively eliminated from the market for eight years: assuming three years of construction followed by a five-year waiting period.
But there could be some relief as new flats and ECs released in 2010 near their completion.
Owners of both private and HDB homes could also offload their flats if they are unable to rent them out, or if yields are unattractive.
But ERA's Mr Lim added that rising prices for mass market private homes may keep upgraders away, who will instead look for a flat with a good location or just stay where they are.
Where housing policy is concerned, caution seems to be the watchword, with the consultants not advocating drastic measures.
Source: Business Times –27 December 2012
 
Eight private estates to get upgrading
More than 7,000 households are set to benefit from a $29 million facelift under the government's Estate Upgrading Programme (EUP). The properties, spread across eight private estates, will see the money spent on the upgrading of parks, playgrounds and widening of footpaths.
The Ministry of National Development (MND) announced yesterday that Goldhill, Mayflower Gardens and Yio Chu Kang Gardens, Cashew and Hazel Park Terrace, Greenleaf, Bartley Neighbourhood, Carmichael, Haig Road and Limau estates have been selected to benefit from the eighth EUP.
These older private estates are expected to benefit from the improved facilities when work will be completed in three to four years.
"There is high demand for upgrading and improvement works from private estates. When selecting a site for upgrading, we consider the age and physical condition of the estate, and scope for improvement," said Mohamad Maliki Osman, chairman of the EUP committee, and Senior Parliamentary Secretary for National Development.
Over the years, the EUP has seen the creation of parks, playgrounds and fitness corners to provide the community with a variety of recreational and fitness facilities.
Since its inception in 2000, the MND has spent $138 million in upgrading 46 private estates, comprising more than 34,000 households, in its seven previous batches. These include Serangoon Gardens, Hoover Park, Opera Estate and Hillview Estate.
Hillview Estate, which completed its facelift in July 2010, now boasts renovated playgrounds, covered drainage, a proper bus stop, a games court and four parks, including a community garden where residents cultivate plants.
The last EUP was administered in 2010 and saw 5,000 private households benefit from a $21 million facelift.
Source: Business Times –27 December 2012
 
Tampines EC 'presidential suite' to be priced at $2.05m
The monster 4,349 sq ft "presidential suite" at an executive condominium (EC) project in Tampines will be the first EC unit to eclipse the $2 million mark if sold at its launch this weekend.
The Straits Times understands that the penthouse unit at 514-unit CityLife @ Tampines, which comes with a roof terrace of about 1,600 sq ft, will be priced at about $2.05 million - or $470 per sq ft (psf).
The unit price rises to $744 psf if only liveable space is counted.
If sold, the overall price will set a new record for an EC - the latest in a string of sky-high prices that have raised eyebrows and led to a raging debate on whether buyers of such expensive ECs should be entitled to Housing Board grants.
These public-private housing hybrids are pushing size and price boundaries, with large, luxurious units that come with fancy designs, rivalling even that of private homes.
The current record is held by a 2,845 sq ft penthouse unit at Heron Bay in Upper Serangoon that fetched an eye-popping $1.77 million in October.
Potential home buyers thronged the showflat in Tampines Avenue 7 yesterday - the first day of the showflat preview - although bookings will start only on Saturday.
All three-bedroom units and smaller will be priced under $1 million with average prices at $770 psf.
This is slightly lower than the median price of $806 psf for the 26 units sold last month at The Tampines Trilliant, another EC project next to CityLife.
Average prices at The Tampines Trilliant, however, were $766 psf when the project was launched in February.
CityLife was more than three times subscribed with about 1,800 applications received by the deadline earlier this month.
About 30 per cent of sales hotline inquiries the project received were geared towards either the presidential suite or the six skysuites, its marketing agent said.
The project is being developed by a consortium comprising Amara Holdings, Kay Lim Holdings and SingXpress Land.
Source: The Straits Times –27 December 2012
 
AA set to quit River Valley site
A landmark on River Valley Road - the AA Centre - is set to change hands.
An offer of $61.8 million has been made for the site, which has been the headquarters of the Automobile Association of Singapore (AAS) since 1967.
But the offer from Starlite Land Development, a subsidiary of listed property giant Far East Organization, is well below the indicative price that the AAS set in June when it sought expressions of interest.
It was expecting $90 million to $100 million for the building, which sits on a 33,751 sq ft freehold plot in the prime district.
AAS members will decide on Jan 9, at an extraordinary general meeting, whether to accept the offer. The potential sale, however, does not include the residential units that occupy the top seven floors of the 14-storey building.
The owners of the 24 apartments and four penthouses have put them up for sale separately.
Their target price is about $2,000 per sq ft (psf).
The AAS sold these apartments to finance the redevelopment of its headquarters in 1984.
Its latest sale plan, however, was prompted by the need to expand its activities, especially its vehicle breakdown services, AAS chief executive Lee Wai Mun told The Straits Times.
Based on the 55,574 sq ft area of the first six floors of the AA Centre that the association owns - and which includes 32 serviced apartments - Starlite's offer works out to around $1,100 psf.
But based on the size of the plot, it works out to around $1,830 psf.
The potential deal is the AAS' biggest since it sold its vehicle inspection business in 2000 to Vicom for $23 million.
The Straits Times understands that the AAS, which turned 105 this year, had wanted for several years to sell the building.
In 2003, the AAS bought a 20,000 sq ft property at 2, Kung Chong Road for $9.3 million to build up its repair and towing operations.
In the AAS' advertisement seeking would-be buyers, it said the part of the building it owns could be converted into SoHo (small office/home office) units or serviced apartments. Starlite declined to comment on its plans for the site.
Source: The Straits Times –27 December 2012
 
Good-class bungalow prices up
The elite end of the residential property sector, the bungalow market, has slowed since last year after cooling measures and tighter financing rules came in.
But analysts said prices were relatively resilient despite weak market sentiment stemming from poor global economic conditions.
Fewer good-class bungalows (GCBs) changed hands this year but, on average, the selling prices were higher.
There are about 2,400 GCBs in Singapore in 39 gazetted areas, such as Nassim, Dalvey and Tanglin.
Some 49 sales had taken place as of the first week of this month, compared with 57 over the full year of 2011.
The total value transacted this year fell to $1.05 billion in this period, down from $1.16 billion for the whole of last year.
However, prices per sq ft (psf) have moved in the opposite direction.
The average price of GCB sales this year was $1,406 psf, about 10 per cent higher than the average of $1,276 psf recorded last year.
The loan-to-value ratio was also lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent for buyers with an outstanding mortgage.
This means that a buyer might have to fork out $12 million in cash for a $30million home.
Still, this year saw the most expensive sale in two years when a bungalow in Ridout Road changed hands in late March for $60.6 million, or $1,490 psf.
This is the highest overall price for a GCB since 3, Leedon Park was sold for a record $61.4 million in December 2010.
The Ridout Road seller was former Goldman Sachs banker Thomas Chan, who gained control of it last year after a protracted legal battle between the former owner Agus Anwar and another party to whom Mr Agus had earlier granted an option, said The Business Times (BT).
Mr Chan picked up the property for $37 million based on an option granted to him in
2009, and BT said Mr Chan is understood to have sold the property to Tecity Group, which is controlled by the family of the late OCBC Bank chairman Tan Chin Tuan.
The second most expensive sale this year was a GCB at Leedon Park for $33 million in October or $2,110 psf.
The third and fourth most expensive GCBs sold were in Binjai Park, and the fifth was in Chatsworth Road. All of them are freehold.
Source: The Straits Times –27 December 2012
 
Growing pool of seniors, singles 'could trigger housing rethink'
A new report suggests that the growing presence of senior citizens and singles here may prompt a rethink of housing options and policies by both developers and the Government.
Suggestions such as longer land tenures for retirement villages and a quota for allocating Build-to-Order (BTO) HDB flats to singles are prosed.
While senior citizens and singles are likely to remain minority groups here, their numbers are substantial enough to contribute significantly to potential housing demand.
The proportion of those aged 65 and older is expected to hit 15 per cent of the resident population by 2020 before ballooning to 20 per cent in 2030.
While some public sector housing options - such as rental flats and studio apartments on 30-year leases - cater to the elderly, less has been done by private developers.
Developers could consider serviced apartment style housing with long-term leases or purchase options for homes that come with services such as housekeeping, it said. They could also explore the feasibility of retirement villages.
Instead of shorter land tenures, however,  selling land for a retirement village on longer tenures of 99 years, or up to 120 or 150 years, could be considered.
The developer will have room to create a good quality product, with all of the necessary additional facilities and services that the elderly require. The developer can then sell the retirement village units to senior citizens on 15-year, 20-year and 30-year options, where the units will revert to the developer to resell to another set of retirees.
In this way, retirement village units' economic lifespan can be longer and the developer will be able to generate a reasonable return on shorter leases.
As for singles, the firm said a ratio or quota system could be used to allocate new BTO flats to them. Such an approach has worked fairly well for Singapore, the report noted.
Source: The Straits Times –27 December 2012

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